7.5.B.11 - Conducting a Simulation to Estimate the Probability of an Event – Exit Ticket
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5 Questions
Use this information to answer the questions below.
Liang wants to form a chess club. His principal says that he can do that if Liang can find six players, including him. How
would you conduct a simulated model that estimates the probability that Liang will find at least five other players to join
the club if he asks eight players who have a 70% chance of agreeing to join the club? Suggest a simulation model for
Liang by describing how you would do the following parts.
10 points
10
Question 1
1.
Specify the device you want to use to simulate one person being asked.
Specify the device you want to use to simulate one person being asked.
10 points
10
Question 2
2.
What outcome(s) of the device would represent the person agreeing to be a
member?
What outcome(s) of the device would represent the person agreeing to be a
member?
10 points
10
Question 3
3.
What constitutes a trial using your device in this problem?
What constitutes a trial using your device in this problem?
10 points
10
Question 4
4.
What constitutes a success using your device in this problem?
What constitutes a success using your device in this problem?
10 points
10
Question 5
5.
Based on 50 trials, using the method you have suggested, how would you calculate
the estimate for the probability that Liang will be able to form a chess club?
Based on 50 trials, using the method you have suggested, how would you calculate
the estimate for the probability that Liang will be able to form a chess club?
From EngageNY.org of the New York State Education Department. Grade 7 Mathematics Module 5, Topic B, Lesson 11. Internet. Available from https://www.engageny.org/resource/grade-7-mathemat...; accessed 8/Apr/2016.