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7.5.B.11 - Conducting a Simulation to Estimate the Probability of an Event – Exit Ticket

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Last updated about 4 years ago
5 questions
Use this information to answer the questions below.
Liang wants to form a chess club. His principal says that he can do that if Liang can find six players, including him. How would you conduct a simulated model that estimates the probability that Liang will find at least five other players to join the club if he asks eight players who have a 70% chance of agreeing to join the club? Suggest a simulation model for Liang by describing how you would do the following parts.
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Question 1
1.

Specify the device you want to use to simulate one person being asked.

Question 2
2.

What outcome(s) of the device would represent the person agreeing to be a member?

Question 3
3.

What constitutes a trial using your device in this problem?

Question 4
4.

What constitutes a success using your device in this problem?

Question 5
5.

Based on 50 trials, using the method you have suggested, how would you calculate the estimate for the probability that Liang will be able to form a chess club?

From EngageNY.org of the New York State Education Department. Grade 7 Mathematics Module 5, Topic B, Lesson 11. Internet. Available from https://www.engageny.org/resource/grade-7-mathemat...; accessed 8/Apr/2016.