7.5.B.11 - Conducting a Simulation to Estimate the Probability of an Event – Exit Ticket
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5 Questions
Use this information to answer the questions below.
Liang wants to form a chess club. His principal says that he can do that if Liang can find six players, including him. How
would you conduct a simulated model that estimates the probability that Liang will find at least five other players to join
the club if he asks eight players who have a 70% chance of agreeing to join the club? Suggest a simulation model for
Liang by describing how you would do the following parts.
10
1.
Specify the device you want to use to simulate one person being asked.
10
2.
What outcome(s) of the device would represent the person agreeing to be a
member?
10
3.
What constitutes a trial using your device in this problem?
10
4.
What constitutes a success using your device in this problem?
10
5.
Based on 50 trials, using the method you have suggested, how would you calculate
the estimate for the probability that Liang will be able to form a chess club?
From EngageNY.org of the New York State Education Department. Grade 7 Mathematics Module 5, Topic B, Lesson 11. Internet. Available from https://www.engageny.org/resource/grade-7-mathemat...; accessed 8/Apr/2016.