Climate Feedback Loops (Graded: Crit C)

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Systems thinkers look for feedback loops. What's a feedback loop, you ask? Watch the first 2:46 (up until you hear the example about pesticides), then identify if the examples provided were positive or negative.

Plants grow, die, and feed soil for more plants to grow
Removing forests causes erosion, harder to grow new trees, more erosion
Lynx & hares balance each other out

Positive feedback loop (amplifying loops)
Negative feedback loop (balancing loops)

Feedback loops are amazing science - and they are what make scientists really worried when it comes to global warming. I'm going to ask you to explore two feedback loops connected to climate change by looking at a series of graphs. 

As you go, I want you to practice making sense of graphs. Here are some tips to do this quickly:
* Notice: what are axis labels? The x-axis for all these graphs is time. The y-axis (up&down) is different for each.
* Almost of all the data fluctuate up & down. That's normal. So, focus on the overall shape of the line, or the trend Is the data going up or down?

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Graph 1. This graph shows carbon emission over the last 800,000 years.
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Which best describes what's going on?

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Based on the Graph 1, what is our current level of C02 in the atmosphere?

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As we go from one link to the next, I'd like you to make a hypothesis. Remember, that's a scientifically-based guess about how one variable will relate to another variable. It can sound like if this happens to one variable, then this will happen to the other variable.

Question: If carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to rise, what will happen to global temperatures?

Use what you know about the greenhouse effect to select a logical hypothesis for this question.

Graph 2. This maps summer temperatures throughout the northern hemisphere over the last 65 years. The y-axis says "more frequent." View it at this link if you need a clearer image.
Source: nytimes.com

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What does this graph show?

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Okay, it's getting hotter!

Question: If global temperatures are rising, how will that impact the amount of precipitation that falls as snow?

Choose a logical hypothesis: If global temperatures are rising, then...

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Graph 3. Trends in April Snowpack in the Western United States, 1955–2016
*Snowpack is the built up snow in mountainous areas. It then melts in the spring, providing water to ecosystems through the spring and summer.
Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-snowpack

I notice the graph shows a lot more red circles than blue. What does that mean?

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So, snowpack is getting lower where we live. How might lower snowpack in the mountains affect the number of wildfires in the western US? Why?

Complete this hypothesis: If there is lower snowpack, then....because...

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Graph 4. This shows the land area burned each year by wildfires in the western U.S.
Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires

If wildfires are, on average, burning a greater number of trees each year, how will that affect carbon emissions? (Hint: what do trees do for the atmosphere?)

Hypothesis: If wildfires are burning a greater number of acres of forest each year, then....because...

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Whew! That's feedback loop #1. Summarize how are wildfires are connected to climate change by filling in the blanks.

As carbon emissions __ this causes temperatures to which reduces which results in more _ which leads to _ carbon emissions!

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Graph 5. Let's start Feedback Loop #2. Again, this shows carbon emissions over time.

About how much more C02 was emitted by the entire world in 2014 than in 1950?

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Graph 5. Temperatures in the arctic (the snowy north of the globe)

Based on this graph, how are rising C02 emissions affecting the arctic? Choose the best description:

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Question: How will the rising arctic temperatures impact the amount of sea ice and glaciers in the arctic?

Complete the hypothesis: If arctic temperatures...

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Graph 6. This graph shows the amount of arctic land covered by sea ice over time. (Were you right?)
From 1979-2017, you can see the trend going down. Which year had the lowest amount of sea ice?

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Graph 7. This graph shows the sea level over time. What do you notice?

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level

Write a hypothesis to explain how this graph might be connected to the the one above (Graph 6). That is, how might the amount of sea ice relate to the sea level? (If...then...because...)

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Fact: Ice reflects most radiation from the sun back into space. However, ocean water absorbs most of the solar radiation hitting earth.

Question: So, If the ice is melting, how will that impact the temperature of the ocean?

Write your hypothesis. If....

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Graph 8. This shows the changes in ocean temperature at 2 depths.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/learning/teach-about-climate-change-with-these-24-new-york-times-graphs.html

Which is warming more, the shallow ocean or deep ocean?

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Graph 8. This graph shows where ocean life, like the beluga whale, is spending its time.
Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-marine-species-distribution

Make a hypothesis to connect this graph to the last one. If...then...because...

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Final graph! Belugas are a species of whale.
Write a specific question you could ask to learn more about how this graph might be connected to climate change. I wonder if...

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That's feedback loop #2. Summarize how carbon emissions are connected to sea life.
When carbon emissions rise, temperatures _, which causes sea ice to _, which _ the ocean level and further _ the ocean's temperature. (P.S. This _____ ocean animal populations.)

And it's so much more complicated then that! (Optional): Learn more from Bill Nye, the Science Guy...

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Systems thinkers look for feedback loops. What's a feedback loop, you ask? Watch the first 2:46 (up until you hear the example about pesticides), then identify if the examples provided were positive or negative.

Graph 1. This graph shows carbon emission over the last 800,000 years. https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/Which best describes what's going on?

Based on the Graph 1, what is our current level of C02 in the atmosphere?

What does this graph show?

Okay, it's getting hotter!Question: If global temperatures are rising, how will that impact the amount of precipitation that falls as snow? Choose a logical hypothesis: If global temperatures are rising, then...

So, snowpack is getting lower where we live. How might lower snowpack in the mountains affect the number of wildfires in the western US? Why?Complete this hypothesis: If there is lower snowpack, then....because...

Whew! That's feedback loop #1. Summarize how are wildfires are connected to climate change by filling in the blanks.As carbon emissions ____ this causes temperatures to ____ which reduces ____ which results in more _____ which leads to ___ carbon emissions!

Graph 5. Let's start Feedback Loop #2. Again, this shows carbon emissions over time.About how much more C02 was emitted by the entire world in 2014 than in 1950?

Graph 5. Temperatures in the arctic (the snowy north of the globe)Based on this graph, how are rising C02 emissions affecting the arctic? Choose the best description:

Question: How will the rising arctic temperatures impact the amount of sea ice and glaciers in the arctic?Complete the hypothesis: If arctic temperatures...

Graph 6. This graph shows the amount of arctic land covered by sea ice over time. (Were you right?)From 1979-2017, you can see the trend going down. Which year had the lowest amount of sea ice?

Fact: Ice reflects most radiation from the sun back into space. However, ocean water absorbs most of the solar radiation hitting earth.Question: So, If the ice is melting, how will that impact the temperature of the ocean?Write your hypothesis. If....

Graph 8. This shows the changes in ocean temperature at 2 depths.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/learning/teach-about-climate-change-with-these-24-new-york-times-graphs.htmlWhich is warming more, the shallow ocean or deep ocean?

Graph 8. This graph shows where ocean life, like the beluga whale, is spending its time. Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-marine-species-distributionMake a hypothesis to connect this graph to the last one. If...then...because...

Final graph! Belugas are a species of whale.Write a specific question you could ask to learn more about how this graph might be connected to climate change. I wonder if...

That's feedback loop #2. Summarize how carbon emissions are connected to sea life.When carbon emissions rise, temperatures ___, which causes sea ice to ___, which ___ the ocean level and further ___ the ocean's temperature. (P.S. This _____ ocean animal populations.)

Final conclusion. In 2 sentences, explain: How are feedback loops contributing to climate change?

Graph 1. This graph shows carbon emission over the last 800,000 years.
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Which best describes what's going on?

Okay, it's getting hotter!

Question: If global temperatures are rising, how will that impact the amount of precipitation that falls as snow?

Choose a logical hypothesis: If global temperatures are rising, then...

So, snowpack is getting lower where we live. How might lower snowpack in the mountains affect the number of wildfires in the western US? Why?

Complete this hypothesis: If there is lower snowpack, then....because...

Whew! That's feedback loop #1. Summarize how are wildfires are connected to climate change by filling in the blanks.

As carbon emissions __ this causes temperatures to which reduces which results in more _ which leads to _ carbon emissions!

Graph 5. Let's start Feedback Loop #2. Again, this shows carbon emissions over time.

About how much more C02 was emitted by the entire world in 2014 than in 1950?

Graph 5. Temperatures in the arctic (the snowy north of the globe)

Based on this graph, how are rising C02 emissions affecting the arctic? Choose the best description:

Question: How will the rising arctic temperatures impact the amount of sea ice and glaciers in the arctic?

Complete the hypothesis: If arctic temperatures...

Graph 6. This graph shows the amount of arctic land covered by sea ice over time. (Were you right?)
From 1979-2017, you can see the trend going down. Which year had the lowest amount of sea ice?

Fact: Ice reflects most radiation from the sun back into space. However, ocean water absorbs most of the solar radiation hitting earth.

Question: So, If the ice is melting, how will that impact the temperature of the ocean?

Write your hypothesis. If....

Graph 8. This shows the changes in ocean temperature at 2 depths.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/learning/teach-about-climate-change-with-these-24-new-york-times-graphs.html

Which is warming more, the shallow ocean or deep ocean?

Graph 8. This graph shows where ocean life, like the beluga whale, is spending its time.
Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-marine-species-distribution

Make a hypothesis to connect this graph to the last one. If...then...because...

Final graph! Belugas are a species of whale.
Write a specific question you could ask to learn more about how this graph might be connected to climate change. I wonder if...

That's feedback loop #2. Summarize how carbon emissions are connected to sea life.
When carbon emissions rise, temperatures _, which causes sea ice to _, which _ the ocean level and further _ the ocean's temperature. (P.S. This _____ ocean animal populations.)