Lesson 086: Introduction to Probability

Aim: How do we use math to explain the likelihood of an event occurring?

Learning Objective: I CAN explain probability in terms of certainty and uncertainty.

Essential Questions:
When is it important to collect and organize data?
How can collecting and organizing data help you to make decisions and predictions?
How do certain careers utilize the summary of data sets?

event, Ccance, certain, impossible, unlikely, likely

Criteria for Success
Express probability of an event as a fraction (desired event/all possible event)
Convert fractions as a percentage
Contextualize event in context of probability

Required

1

Miriam closed her eyes and took one marble out of the sack. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the marble she picked was white?

Required

1

Self Assessment: How confident are you on the mid-lesson checkpoint? Circle your answer.

1

Kerry used the spinner. Order the colors using probability, from least likely to most likely. 
_______ < _______ < _______ < _______ 

1

If Jack spins the spinner once, on which is it most likely to land?

1

You roll a six-sided cube number cube and the number is less than 5 P(n<5) =

1

You roll a six-sided cube number cube and the number is a multiple of 3. P(multiple of 3) =

1

A bowl has golf balls numbered 1-10. You randomly choose a ball and the number is between 2 and 4.

1

Think of a scenario with an impossible event.

1

Think of a scenario with a certain event.

1

Think of a scenario with an unlikely event.

1

Think of a scenario with a likely event.

Required

1

How likely is it that the next song will be pop? Explain your reasoning.

Required

1

What do you think the next song will most likely be? Why? Use math to justify your reasoning.

1

Miriam closed her eyes and took one marble out of the sack. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the marble she picked was white?

Self Assessment: How confident are you on the mid-lesson checkpoint? Circle your answer.

Ben has four cards. He asks Jill to close her eyes and take one card. Which sentence best tells what will happen?

David put these cards into a box. If he draws one card out of the box without looking, the number on the card will most likely be

He will pick one marble out of the jar without looking. Which word best describes Mel's chances of picking a dark marble?

If Jack spins the spinner once, on which is it most likely to land?

You roll a six-sided cube number cube and the number is less than 5 P(n<5) =

You roll a six-sided cube number cube and the number is a multiple of 3. P(multiple of 3) =

A bowl has golf balls numbered 1-10. You randomly choose a ball and the number is between 2 and 4.

Think of a scenario with an impossible event.

Think of a scenario with a certain event.

Think of a scenario with an unlikely event.

Think of a scenario with a likely event.

How likely is it that the next song will be pop? Explain your reasoning.

What do you think the next song will most likely be? Why? Use math to justify your reasoning.

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