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Context 34 - Public Policy

Last updated over 1 year ago
20 questions
Note from the author:
MMR resources
1

Using Google and the graphic above, give a brief timeline of the birth policies in China.

1

What are some positive effects of the one-child policy?

1

What are some negative effects of the one-child policy?

Use the following website to flip 50 coins to simulate 50 families having 1 child.
Be sure to change the number to 50 to quickly simulate it.
-Heads = Boy
-Tails = Girl
https://www.mathmammoth.com/practice/coin-tosser
1

How many boys (heads) were “born” in your simulation?

1

How many girls (tails) were “born” in your simulation?

1

What is the probability that a family who had one child would have a boy?
Hint: Divide the number of boys by 50.

1

What is the average number of children in each family?

1

Find the population replacement rate. (you can Google this). Will the population of rural China increase or decrease if each family has 1 child? Why?

Now we're going to explore the effects of China's 2 child policy.
We'll flip 2 coins 50 times.
Heads=Boy
Tails=Girl
Click here to open the site
1

Record your results in the Individual Frequency column

1

How many boys were “born” in your simulation?

1

What is the probability that a family who had exactly two children would have at least one boy?
Hint: Divide the number of families with at least one boy (G-B, B-G, B-B) by 50.

1

What is the average number of children in each family?

1

Using the replacement rate you found in question 8, will the population of rural China increase or decrease? Why?

A new policy was proposed allowing families to have children until they get a son. Use the following site to generate 50 trials of families having children until a boy is born.
https://www.statcrunch.com/applets/type3&coins
You'll flip the coin until a "heads" (boy) is recorded. Repeat this to simulate 50 families.
1
1

How many boys were “born” in your simulation?

1

What is the probability that a family under this simulation would have at least one boy?
Hint: Divide your number of families with at least one boy by 50.

1

What is the average number of children in each family?

1

Using the replacement rate you found in question 8, will the population of rural China increase or decrease? Why?

1

Based on your simulations, how does each of the policies affect the population growth in China? Consider the family size, the number of children per family, and the replacement rate.

1

Suppose that in China, 25% of the families have no children, 39% of the families have one child, 27% of the families have two children, and 9% of the families have children until they have a son. Using your findings above, what is the average family size in China?