In this activity, you’ll use March Madness-style matchups (with team names and seed numbers) to practice simple probability and basic compound probability (AND events). You’ll convert between decimals and percents, use complements, and multiply probabilities for independent events.
In a made-up March Madness matchup, Kansas has a 60% chance to beat Pitt. What is the probability Kansas wins?
Choose the best answer.
Kansas has a 60% chance to beat Pitt.
What is the probability Kansas does not win (Kansas loses)?
In a self-contained model, the higher seed wins a game with probability 0.65.
In a Duke (3 seed) vs. Kansas (6 seed) matchup, what is the probability the higher seed wins?
Using the same model: the higher seed wins with probability 0.65.
What is the probability of an upset (the lower seed wins)?
Game scenario: North Carolina makes a free throw with probability 0.75.
What is the probability North Carolina makes both of two free throws (assume the shots are independent)?
North Carolina makes a free throw with probability 0.75.
What is the probability North Carolina makes exactly one of two free throws (assume independence)?
In a model, Duke has a 0.40 probability to hit a 3-pointer.
If Duke takes 2 independent 3-point shots, the probability they make both is 0.80.
Upset-check (self-contained rule):
If the seed difference is 5 or more, the upset probability is 0.30.
Which matchups have an upset probability of 0.30? Select two.
In our model, the probability of an upset in a certain game is 0.25.
Write this probability as a percent.