Directions: Use the information provided and your knowledge of Earth and Space Sciences to answer the following questions. Show all work where necessary.
Directions: Use the information provided and your knowledge of Earth and Space Sciences to answer the following questions. Show all work where necessary.
Projections of future climate involve a multistep process using scenarios about future socioeconomic developments, policy goals, and emissions to drive Earth system models.
Figure 1. The graphic shows the chain of development leading to Earth system model experiments under CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, the most up-to-date 21st-century climate change projections. Five societal development pathways (the SSPs) were produced. Then, assumptions about climate mitigation policies that could be consistently applied to those socioeconomic futures were developed (the SPAs). Integrated assessment models took these baseline or mitigated pathways and produced alternative plausible trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. Earth system models used those emissions and land-use changes as inputs to produce the new CMIP6 scenarios of climate outcomes. Figure credit: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, NOAA NCEI, and CISESS NC.
Explain the purpose of climate models such as those used in the CMIP6 ScenarioMIP project.
Which of the following best describes the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) used in climate projections?
Explain how scientists use integrated assessment models (IAMs) in the climate projection process.
Based on Figure 1, describe the relationship between socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate outcomes in the CMIP6 model chain.
Why do scientists run multiple models (ensemble simulations) when making climate projections?
Explain why climate models are not rigid but continually updated.
Use the information from Figure 1 and the reading to answer the prompt:
Are current models of future climate scenarios rigid and unable to adjust with new data?
Describe how policymakers and scientists use results from future climate models to guide decisions.