Directions: Use the information provided and your knowledge of Earth and Space Sciences to answer the following questions. Show all work where necessary.
Directions: Use the information provided and your knowledge of Earth and Space Sciences to answer the following questions. Show all work where necessary.
...With these motivations in mind, we developed the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF) system to provide information about the human role in extreme events at the monthly scale (Lawal et al. 2015). The WRAF was designed as a proactive system that would calculate event attribution metrics before the occurrence of the events, with the realization that most analyzed events would never materialize. There were four main objectives:
to demonstrate the feasibility of a global proactive event attribution system;
to gain experience with the usage of a proactive event attribution service;
to share lessons from that experience with other institutions; and
to provide a preliminary attribution information service.
Figure 1.
The attribution hindcast (i.e., using observed SSTs) issued for June 2011 for the effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the chance of (top) an unusually hot month and (bottom) an unusually wet month in each of 58 regions, using 60 simulations per scenario (issued in August 2011).
Explain what a Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF) system does and how it differs from traditional weather forecasting.
A WRAF model predicts that under current greenhouse gas conditions, a regional heatwave has a 40% higher probability of occurring compared to preindustrial levels. What does this tell us about the role of greenhouse gases in extreme weather?
Which statement best summarizes the primary purpose of the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF)?
Describe how climate models and attribution systems use data to separate natural variability from human-induced effects.
According to the WRAF’s objectives, which of the following is NOT one of its main goals?
Explain how proactive weather risk attribution can help governments and communities prepare for and respond to climate-related hazards.
Claim:
Greenhouse gases are significantly affecting regional and global weather patterns.
Use information from the WRAF to support this claim.
Propose one technological or policy-based solution that could help reduce human influence on extreme weather patterns.